What the Fed Missed

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on June 17, 2017

Alice…where are you? It seems that Alice in Wonderland may be the only one in a position to understand what’s happening with interest rates, unemployment and the overall U.S. economy in light of the Fed Meeting on Wednesday and recent data. Much like in Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking Glass, where the clock runs backwards and memories flow in reverse, things in the U.S. economy may not be quite what they seem. While the equityRead More

Markets are at extremes. Where does it go from here?

Why History Matters

Posted by

on May 16, 2017

With the ongoing political comedy playing out in Washington, North Korea continuing their missile tests much to the world’s chagrin…and the new moderate President Macron in France coming to power, we have a mixed bag when it comes to global politics. Europe is breathing a sigh of relief now that the French elections erased the risk of France opting to depart from the E.U. But the U.S., China and Russia continue to be at oddsRead More

  The goal is to build a portfolio that can weather any scenario, no matter what the factors are. That’s the message Ray Dalio recently shared with Business Insider when explaining how he would tell investors to position their money and feel comfortable about what might happen in the economy and the markets. It’s worth noting that Dalio is founder and co-CIO of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund … and his message makesRead More

It was supposed to be the end of the gold trade. Donald Trump had taken the White House. The American economy, a decade in the doldrums after the Great Recession, was on the road to becoming a mighty beast again. The dollar was rallying strongly – so strongly – and the stock market was surging. Bond prices were flagging. And the Federal Reserve was about to launch itself into a rate-hike cycle that would, supposedly,Read More

Japanese Yen new Safe haven?
As U.S. warships rained Tomahawk missiles onto a Syrian airbase Thursday night, currency traders began positioning themselves for safety. It was not, however, the dollar that benefited. It was the yen. It’s an odd turnabout. The yen, after all, represents the economy with the world’s greatest debt burden (in terms of debt to GDP). The yen, as well, is the sacrificial lamb in Japanese government’s plan to revitalize a long-moribund economy by continually printing currency.Read More

China's strengh will help currencies.
The rumors of China’s impending death have been greatly exaggerated. Once again, China has reported a fairly decent economic data point – this time the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, a measure of health within the manufacturing sector. The index moved up to 51.8 for February, the highest reading in nearly five years. Anything north of 50 indicates a strengthening economy. To long-standing China bashers, such data says nothing of importance. We hear the voices thatRead More

It seems that only in time does the impact of a rash decision begin to show. Pregnancy never reveals itself immediately…and so it goes with Brexit. In weeks and months following Britain’s decision to divorce itself from the European Union and go it alone, Brexit’s supporters – and most of the media – have gleefully pointed out that nothing bad happened. The negative ramifications everyone was worried about amounted to nothing…nada…zip. We suspected the supportersRead More

Next week, the Dutch go to the polls to elect their next government. A few weeks later, the French follow suit. Global Wall Street has been on tenterhooks for a while now, worried that the populist wave the washed over Britain (Brexit) and the U.S. (Donald Trump) is set to inundate Western Europe this year. The focus is particularly the Netherlands and France. The Street’s fear is that this wave has the potential to pullRead More

Private placement insurance is an interesting solution that can offer a host of benefits including tax-differed growth on investments, tax-free policy loans, and when structured properly, income tax-free distributions upon death. Read More

The Trump Effect is of concern to those of us savvy enough to see it, and it speaks to why gold prices are not declining as they traditionally would. The world is worried.Read More